I write this with mixed feelings - I recognize Ida is a tropical storm and deserves a certain amount of respect, but at the same time, I feel that by the time it gets to us on the north Gulf coast, there won't be a lot left to it - making all the focus and disruption it is causing somewhat disconcerting. Here's why:

1) The shear is eating Ida's lunch . . . and dinner, and everything else. It's debatable whether there will be much left of Ida by the time she comes ashore.

2) The large variation between the last 2 forecast maps tells me that the disruption in the storm caused by the shear is making tracking the eye very difficult - the NHC folks said as much in the 3 PM Discussion ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092056.shtml? )

3) The move means Santa Rosa is out from under the gun - if the move stays in place. Any time you see big jumps in the track as we just saw now, that means the models are very unreliable. Just as it moved about 75 - 100 miles west from this last forecast and the one preceding this one, so it can move back again to landfall near Garcon Point. What it means to you: be sure you check tonight for the latest on the storm.

4) As for Escambia County (FL), you are in a slightly worse situation because now you are east of the eye. But with the disruption that the shear winds are putting on Ida, it really is questionable how much the eye reflects the worst of the storm. With the decoupling of the surface eye from the mid and upper level centers of low pressure, it appears we will get the worst when all the current rainbands now washing across us continue their track.

I'll have another update this evening, but in short summary, this is nothing to panic about. The disruption, combined with the shear, mean that Ida will be a big rainmaker, with some winds, but nothing to get distraught about.

As you can see for yourself in this water vapor image of what's left of Ida, the entire southern semicircle is gone, and the western portion of the northern semicircle is getting torn up next. The only thing that will stop this is the LA land mass stopping the SW shear. But at this point it hardly matters since so much damage is already inflicted.

Stay tuned, but I'm not entirely sure for what . . .

-30-